Worked case · Controlled response · 12 figures

Operational feedback loop

Close the operational loop

Figure 01 / 12

The population that monitoring actually sees

The population that monitoring actually sees — Operational feedback loop. Count; closed-case signals in one day. Exact values are in the figure data below.
Count; closed-case signals in one day

7,064 of 7,100 source items enter this monitoring calculation. The missing 36 items are a coverage gap, not evidence of low risk. Reconcile stable identifiers and amounts where appropriate before interpreting the alert rate.

Figure data and text version
Population stateItems
Included in monitoring7,064
Absent from this run36

Case conclusions can expose upstream data and policy faults. Feedback should preserve evidence and avoid turning every reviewer opinion into an unquestioned training label.

Group supported root causes, assign remediation, and verify the affected population after repair.

All amounts, rates, capacity limits, and outcomes in this case are synthetic. The three conditions are separate assumptions for comparison. A better result in the response condition is not measured proof that the proposed control causes that improvement. The figures expose the calculation and its limits; a real deployment needs its own evidence.

Read the result

The daily source population is 7,100 items, but 36 are outside the completed monitoring run. The included population creates 386 hits and 367 unique cases. With 64 cases already open and capacity for 448, the queue closes at 0. Coverage, duplicate work, and staffing are separate causes; reducing one number does not prove that the overall control improved.

Model inputs and calculated values

Inputs below are the case-specific values. Each figure states the condition-specific assumptions and units used in its calculation. Calculated values are rounded for display.

InputValue
population7,100
alertRate0.052
capacity320
backlog64
Calculated valueResult
population7,100
covered7,064
missing36
raw386
duplicates19
cases367
opening64
resolved431
closing0
capacity448
Figure 02 / 12

From scenario hits to unique cases

From scenario hits to unique cases — Operational feedback loop. Count; hit and case units differ. Exact values are in the figure data below.
Count; hit and case units differ

386 raw hits become 367 cases after removing 19 repeated references to the same case under the stated merge rule. Deduplication should reduce duplicate work while retaining the underlying events and reasons. It must not merge unrelated activity merely because values look similar.

Figure data and text version
StageCount
Raw scenario hits386
Duplicate references19
Unique cases367
Figure 03 / 12

The queue balance is an accounting identity

The queue balance is an accounting identity — Operational feedback loop. Cases per day. Exact values are in the figure data below.
Cases per day

Opening backlog 64 + arrivals 367 − completed cases 431 = closing backlog 0. Completion is capped by both available work and the stated capacity. This identity is useful even when average handling times are uncertain.

Figure data and text version
MovementCasesDefinition
Opening backlog64Unresolved at window start
New cases367Unique arrivals in this window
Completed431Reached a defined completion state
Closing backlog0Unresolved at window end
Figure 04 / 12

Backlog accumulates across uneven days

Backlog accumulates across uneven days — Operational feedback loop. Cases unresolved at day end. Exact values are in the figure data below.
Cases unresolved at day end

This deterministic six-day example applies a stated daily arrival multiplier and a constant completion capacity. Unused capacity does not carry forward as completed work. The series is a workload illustration; it omits variable case durations and specialist routing. Horizontal positions are the labeled observations or scenarios; equal spacing does not imply equal numerical increments.

Figure data and text version
DayClosing backlog
D10
D20
D30
D4102
D558
D60
Figure 05 / 12

Arrivals and completions need separate plots

Arrivals and completions need separate plots — Operational feedback loop. Cases per day. Exact values are in the figure data below.
Cases per day

The service line cannot exceed the work available that day. A team can complete more cases than arrive while clearing an opening backlog. Conversely, stable staffing can coexist with a growing queue when arrivals remain higher than capacity. Horizontal positions are the labeled observations or scenarios; equal spacing does not imply equal numerical increments.

Figure data and text version
DayArrivalsCompletions
D1367431
D2312312
D3440440
D4550448
D5404448
D6257315
Figure 06 / 12

An illustrative age profile of open work

An illustrative age profile of open work — Operational feedback loop. Cases; constructed snapshot. Exact values are in the figure data below.
Cases; constructed snapshot

The closing backlog is 0 cases. The 50/30/remainder split is an explicit illustrative age allocation, not a distribution inferred from the arrival model. Production age buckets must come from each case’s actual receipt and status history.

Figure data and text version
Age bucketOpen cases
Under one day0
One to three days0
Over three days0
Figure 07 / 12

Completion outcomes are not criminal labels

Completion outcomes are not criminal labels — Operational feedback loop. Completed review tasks; synthetic disposition allocation. Exact values are in the figure data below.
Completed review tasks; synthetic disposition allocation

Of 431 completed review tasks, 73 are referred for further assessment, 52 need another evidence action, and 306 close under the stated procedure. These are operational outcomes. None is a probability of money laundering or a substitute for a reporting decision.

Figure data and text version
Review dispositionTasks
Referred for assessment73
Further evidence action52
Closed under procedure306
Figure 08 / 12

Known-event tests assess specific coverage

Known-event tests assess specific coverage — Operational feedback loop. Synthetic coverage test. Exact values are in the figure data below.
Synthetic coverage test

The injected test set contains 100 known test events designed to exercise close the operational loop. The system surfaces 96. That 96% detection result measures this constructed test set only; it does not establish population-wide detection of illicit activity.

Figure data and text version
MeasureCountInterpretation
Injected known events100Defined test population
Detected by the scenario96Expected evidence reached the control
Not detected4Investigate data, logic, and delivery
Real-world illicit prevalenceUnknownNot inferred from this test
Figure 09 / 12

Data quality has several independent dimensions

Data quality has several independent dimensions — Operational feedback loop. Count; overlapping field checks. Exact values are in the figure data below.
Count; overlapping field checks

Each row is a different field requirement over the same source population. Completeness alone does not establish that values are accurate or current. The case uses explicit illustrative missing counts to show how data quality can affect scenario coverage.

Figure data and text version
Field requirementPresentAbsent
Party reference7,08614
Event time7,06436
Counterparty context6,994106
Figure 10 / 12

Type the relationship before drawing an inference

Type the relationship before drawing an inference — Operational feedback loop. Typed evidence relationships. Exact values are in the figure data below.
Typed evidence relationships

This evidence map distinguishes a customer relationship, a transfer, and a case reference. The links support close the operational loop; they do not imply common ownership or intent. A shared data point is a lead whose meaning depends on source, time, and context.

Figure data and text version
FromToRelationship
Operational feedback loopCounterparty AObserved transfer
Operational feedback loopProfile recordDeclared business
Counterparty ACase recordEvidence reference
Profile recordCase recordContext for review
Figure 11 / 12

Case clocks start from defined events

Case clocks start from defined events — Operational feedback loop. Illustrative internal timing. Exact values are in the figure data below.
Illustrative internal timing

A legal deadline, an internal response target, and an evidence-expiry date can start from different events. The hours here are internal teaching targets only. They are not BSA, sanctions, consumer-protection, or other statutory deadlines.

Figure data and text version
EventRelative timeOperational meaning
Source eventT0Activity occurred
Data arrivalT0 + 2 hoursThe monitoring system learned it
Case createdT0 + 3 hoursWork entered an owned queue
Internal review targetT0 + 27 hoursIllustrative 24-hour target from case creation
DispositionRecorded separatelyUse actual decision and reporting records
Figure 12 / 12

The end-to-end delivery contract

The end-to-end delivery contract — Operational feedback loop. Operational control path. Exact values are in the figure data below.
Operational control path

The scenario is incomplete until the intended evidence reaches an owned case. For close the operational loop, verify source coverage, hit creation, queue acceptance, reviewer access, and final disposition separately. A green job status proves only that a job reported completion.

Figure data and text version
BoundaryAcceptance evidence
Source to scenario7064 included source items; 36 missing
Scenario to case386 hits linked to 367 unique cases
Case to reviewerRequired evidence visible under the reviewer role
Reviewer to outcomeDisposition, rationale, and any separate reporting decision retained

Connect the result to the system

Group supported root causes, assign remediation, and verify the affected population after repair.

Check the population, evidence, permitted action, and actual effect together. A balanced calculation can still use the wrong population; a successful response can still leave an unknown financial outcome. The case’s numerical result applies only to its stated assumptions.

Sources and further reading

The chapter sources support the concepts and scope. They do not prescribe the synthetic model rates.

  1. FFIEC: suspicious activity reporting
  2. Google SRE: handling overload
  3. MIT: queueing models and Little’s Law